Carlos vs Novak, the 2023 Wimbledon final
The best possible ending. Flipping through the international press and the most reputable tennis sites this morning: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz is unanimously considered the most attractive challenge for the most important game of the season, the 2023 Wimbledon final. Not only because the top two tennis players in the rankings will go head-to-head, but because this match could also be of great importance in continuing their budding rivalry. We all remember how it was at Roland Garros a month ago: great intensity, a head-to-head battle until the young Iberian collapsed, with cramps due to too much tension. This can be even more the case when you play tennis so explosively and to the limit that your body burns a disproportionate amount of energy, more than the energy expenditure required for the competition itself. Certainly Carlos will work on it with his excellent team, because if you want to beat the strongest and “toughest” tennis player of modern times in a Grand Slam, you have to be aware that your performance has to be the maximum – or very close – to it lasts a long time, at least three hours, almost four. It was a very formative experience mentally, so I don’t expect any cramps for Alcaraz today. But what kind of game could it be? What device will the game be played on?
Body and mind will be crucial, as always in a final where the competitive bar will be set for a new world record to be sealed with a top performance. It’s hard to imagine a match in three sets where one of the two clearly dominates. Novak often found himself on the edge of perfection in the tournament, there were very few lapses of tension and the feeling that he was putting very little pressure on in several gamesat most 70% of its potential. Instead, Carlos experienced a few moments of decline, such as the third set of the semifinals. There’s no way he’ll be able to afford it because if there’s a tennis player in the world capable of resisting “underneath”, it’s exactly “Nole” to take advantage of the first shot and penetrate the opponent’s head . A sports killer like no other time that we admired in terms of discipline.
Given Djokovic’s extreme soliditythe composure shown throughout the tournament and bolstered by the win in Paris, the desire to reach Grand Slam No. 24 which affected Margaret Court’s record in the women’s championship and also eighth place at Wimbledon as Roger, well he is the favorite. If I had to make a prediction for today’s game, Djokovic would go in 4 sets, maybe with a tiebreak or two. However, Alcaraz does not start beaten at all. Absurdly, the defeat at Roland Garros will be one of his strengths. Few young people learn as quickly as JC Ferrero’s student. It’s a sponge that absorbs and improves information. Last year he was something of a fish out of water on the lawn. In the loss to our sinner, he obviously struggled to support the team, manage game times and calibrate the power of his shots and attacks, which caused quite a bit of confusion. This year he’s playing with a completely different sense of security and order. Proper play on the lawn is essential. Create yes, improvise no, you have to be able to find alternative solutions and play with an idea behind it that has nothing to do with the point itself but with the flow of the game. Surprise the opponent by making him change working patterns and positions on the field where he determines his rhythms. Just like Djokovic does: Switches at a medium pace, but when he is in control and wins the points, he increases the pace so that the rival does not find an antidote at this pace. He then hits the net just as he had picked up the pace, only to slow it down and break for the opponent. There are never random changes, everything is perfectly orchestrated. It’s one of his strengths. This is one of the reasons why he is very strong and unbeaten in the tournament since 2017…
From a technical point of view, there are many important stages of the game, but there is one that outweighs all the others and will be decisive: Djokovic’s serve vs. Alcaraz’s response. The tournament numbers are clear: Novak won 82% of the points on first serve, a best in the tournament; Carlos won 34% of the points in return for the opponent’s first time, the best data of the tournament. Whoever wins this fight will win the game. Everything else is contour, everything else will revolve around this situation. If Alcaraz manages to find answers so powerful and continuous that he can hit many breakpoints and convert them, then he will win. If Novak can keep most of his games, Carlos has no chance.
Besides that An analysis of how Novak handles breakpoints is very interesting. The result shows the extraordinary mental and tactical strength of the strongest. Novak almost never shoots hard on break points where he serves to the left. He chooses the outside trajectory in percentage terms and then powerfully thrusts into the opponent’s forehand; or he alternates with a not-so-fast and deep serve to the body that forces the receiver to take a diagonal step forward (he should cover the outer slice…) and is barely able to hit hard and to find depth. As soon as the change begins, Djokovic challenges the forehand with great speed. Why is this happening? is he crazy Far from it! He chooses to play against his rival’s average hit Two reasons: 1) It encourages the opponent to shoot “too hard”. to get the point by breaking everything – in this Alcaraz he has to be extra careful as in this situation he tends to wave too much like the bull seeing red…. – 2) He does it because “Nole” is aware of his strength, containing the opponent’s broadside, which is less balanced after a hard hit and gets pinched on the run by the Serb on the other, weaker sideand forced to strike in an awkward position, often off balance. He hits hard at the strong point, urging the other to shoot even harder, but failing to reach the point forces him to play on the run, where it’s less safe. checkmate.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, is called upon to play a terribly offensive game with great speed, a super-aggressive reaction and an obsessive search for the point. He can’t agree on a change at Nole’s pace, but he can’t throw himself forward on every ball either. It will require energy, but also moderation. Because whoever gives too much never beats the other.
There would be many other topics to analyze, but it’s also nice to attend a finale like this without too much other information and to enjoy a game that promises a lot of entertainment due to the strong contrast between the two, in playing style and in personality , in tactics. All the ingredients are in place to make the 2023 Wimbledon final a really interesting game. If Alcaraz wins it would prevent Djokovic from aiming for the seasonal Grand Slam and could gain tremendous confidence for the rest of their fights, perhaps as early as September in New York.
It would have been nice to have Jannik on the pitch, but unfortunately things didn’t go well. It feels like there’s a little less cheering, but we’re still going to have fun. Happy ending to all.
Marco Mazzoni
